An international study, published in the journal Nature, has revealed that the Great Fear—one of the most turbulent episodes of the French Revolution—spread through the countryside following a pattern similar to a virus, reaching its peak ‘contagion’ on July 30th. The research was conducted by scientists from the University of Milan’s Center for Complexity and Biosystems, in collaboration with the Université Paris 8 and the University of Toulon.
“The innovative approach of this research shows that social phenomena, even those from over two centuries ago, can be analyzed with modern scientific tools,” explained Stefano Zapperi, a professor in the University of Milan’s Department of Physics and a co-author of the study. “Just as social networks spread information and disinformation today, so too could the physical networks of the 18th century trigger nationwide chain reactions.”
During the period from July 20 to August 6, 1789, roads and postal stations formed the networks along which rumors, information, and what would now be called fake news traveled from village to village like an epidemic. This was an uncontrollable wave of panic over armed bands of brigands and aristocratic conspiracies to suppress the Revolution. To reconstruct how this wave of panic transmitted through the population, the scholars employed an innovative approach based on epidemiological models typically used to study the spread of disease. They cross-referenced historical sources, antique maps, and contemporary demographic and socioeconomic data.
The study also calculated that the rumors advanced at an average speed of 45 km per day and that 40% of the affected locations were situated near a postal station. Another finding was that areas with higher literacy and wealth—but also with higher grain prices—were the most severely impacted. According to the researchers, this suggests the panic was not an uncontrolled emotional reaction but a rational response to an unbearable situation.
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