Local elections are being held this Sunday in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, home to major cities such as Cologne, Duesseldorf, Dortmund, Bochum, and Bonn. Over thirteen million voters are called to the polls in a vote that is also seen as a key test for the federal government of Friedrich Merz, who represents an electoral district in the state. However, experts have noted that governing parties are typically penalized in the first local elections following a federal parliamentary vote. This trend is reflected in recent polls showing declines for both the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), with the latter experiencing a more pronounced drop.
The CDU is nonetheless projected to remain the leading political force with just over 30% of the vote, while the SPD is struggling to reach 20%. The Greens are also in crisis, expected to fall from 20% to 13%. A surprise could come from the performance of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). After securing a mere 5% in the last local elections, the party achieved 16.8% in the federal elections last February, a level of support that appears likely to be confirmed in this new electoral round. A particular focus is on the Ruhr region, a traditional Social Democratic stronghold, where a “blue wave”—the color associated with AfD—could emerge in the election of councilors, especially in smaller municipalities.
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