The perennial summer debate over taxing Italian banks has resurfaced, exposing fresh fractures within the ruling coalition. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini reignited the contentious issue at his League party’s gathering in Cervia on Thursday, advocating for a “voluntary and spontaneous contribution” from financial institutions. This marks the third consecutive year such proposals have emerged in August, mirroring last year’s fleeting cabinet discussion of a windfall tax that ultimately collapsed due to stark internal government divisions and European Central Bank opposition. That plan was later diluted into capital reserve requirements.
Despite time passing, coalition rifts persist. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani of Forza Italia swiftly countered Salvini’s suggestion, declaring from the States General of the South in Reggio Calabria: “Threatening taxes isn’t how you achieve things. Dialogue is needed. Banks must contribute their share but shouldn’t be branded public enemy number one.” Salvini later acknowledged the impasse, stating, “The League has its opinions, we have ours – which are completely different.” This discord extends to disagreements over the Treasury’s use of ‘golden power’ to intervene in UniCredit’s bid for Banco BPM, which subsequently collapsed. Undeterred, the League formally urged banks to “surrender part of profits” to fund its flagship tax write-off scheme (“rottamazione fiscale”), arguing millions of Italians struggle with tax bills and legacy debts.
The banking sector, buoyed by positive stress test results and preparing half-year reports, presents a contrasting picture of robust health. Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit have already posted record combined profits of €11 billion. Bper, Popolare di Sondrio, Banco BPM, and Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) are set to report midweek. However, focus is shifting to Q3 amid deteriorating macro conditions, trade war uncertainties, and conflict escalation fears. Friday’s market slump saw banking stocks hit particularly hard by renewed tax speculation.
Amid feverish consolidation activity, Bper stands out as the only mid-large bank to successfully conclude a major deal, transforming its initial OPS offer for Popolare di Sondrio into a full OPAS takeover. This cements Modena-based Bper’s ambitions as a ‘third pole’ after absorbing Unipol Banca, UBI branches, and Carige, making it Lombardy’s largest bank by branches alongside Sondrio. Popolare di Sondrio, founded in 1871, loses its autonomy. Banco BPM, freed from UniCredit’s takeover threat and an eight-month ‘passivity rule’ freeze, seeks partners with similar business models. CEO Giuseppe Castagna asserts the institute is indispensable to sector consolidation. Speculation links Banco BPM (holding a 9% MPS stake with Anima) to MPS, particularly if Crédit Agricole (with 19.8% of Banco BPM) opts out of M&A. Meanwhile, MPS pursues Mediobanca, which itself is exploring options like a bid for Banca Generali to regain independence.
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