U.S. Vice President JD Vance has stated that European nations must assume the overwhelming burden of providing security guarantees for Ukraine. “I don’t think we should bear that burden. I believe we should be helpful if necessary to stop the war,” Vance observed. “I think we should expect, and the president certainly expects, that Europe will take a leading role. Whatever form it takes, the Europeans will have to shoulder most of the burden.”
The comments come amid a sprint to produce a first draft on security guarantees for Ukraine within 7-10 days. In a related development, NATO Chiefs of Defence held a videoconference to receive an update from the new Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, and to essentially endorse the efforts of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’. This group is spearheaded by Paris and London—now assisted by Washington—with NATO acting as a coordinator due to the implications for European security.
Moscow has perceived the shift in momentum and has not held back its criticism. “Discussing guarantees without us is a road that leads nowhere,” a Russian official stated. The allied military leaders, in what the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, described as an “excellent and frank” discussion, expressed their support for the Coalition of the Willing as well as for the peace process initiated by Donald Trump. A NATO official clarified that the Alliance is not “directly involved” in drafting military plans—Trump himself wants to keep it as separate as possible from the Ukraine dossier—but also highlighted that cooperation is “inherently” necessary.
The underlying reason is clear: whatever decision is ultimately made by national capitals, it must ensure that any deployed forces—whether boots on the ground or other assets—do not undermine the effectiveness of allied defensive plans. Simply put, any nation sending troops or equipment to Ukraine must simultaneously explain to General Grynkewich how it intends to fill the capability gap left in NATO’s own defences. This highlights the operation’s complexity, especially for countries with already overstretched armed forces.
For its part, Moscow is preemptively bombarding the diplomatic space. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated, “We cannot accept that it is now proposed to resolve security issues, issues of collective security, without Russia. It will not work. And I am sure that in the West, especially in the United States, they understand perfectly well that this is a utopia, a road to nowhere.”
Lavrov resurrected a failed 2022 proposal from Russian-Ukrainian talks hosted by Turkey, suggesting that Ukraine’s security should be guaranteed by “permanent members of the UN Security Council”—namely Russia and China, in addition to the U.S., France, and Britain—a plan he claims was once accepted by the Ukrainian delegation. That initiative foundered after the Kremlin subsequently demanded a veto right over any intervention, rendering the mechanism effectively useless.
Given this, NATO sources indicate that post-ceasefire scenarios remain “open,” precisely because it is unclear how Moscow will be treated—whether it will have a say on security guarantees or be considered an adversarial party to which a finished plan is presented. Militarily, the two approaches are as different as night and day.
Within European institutions, however, officials emphasize that the Coalition will draft the guarantee framework with full autonomy, partly to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin and convince him to negotiate an end to the war in earnest. The first step in this regard would be a bilateral meeting between the Russian leader and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, to be followed by a second summit including Trump.
For Putin, this is a delicate turning point; if he withdraws, European leaders will pressure the U.S. president, arguing it was all a bluff. Lavrov is well aware of this and is attempting to lay the groundwork. “So far,” he remarked, “we have witnessed a rather aggressive escalation on the part of the Europeans, rather clumsy and generally unethical attempts to change the position of the Trump administration and personally the U.S. president, as we observed during the European escort of Zelensky to Washington.” He concluded, “In any case, we are ready for any format, but when it comes to a summit, it must be prepared with the utmost care in all preceding stages.” In other words: it will take time.