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A handshake and a joint text struggling to take definitive form: The Turnberry Pact signed by the United States and the European Union has yet to resolve the protracted tariff dispute. Until August 1, theoretically, all scenarios remain possible, especially since the versions released by Washington and Brussels reveal significant discrepancies. Notably, the EU Commission underscored a critical appendix: Sunday’s agreement is “not legally binding.”
The EU and US will continue negotiations, following respective internal procedures, to fully implement the political accord. Brussels officials stated any day this week could finalize the deal, with a Commission spokesperson assuring, “It will come soon.” However, the EU prioritizes avoiding pitfalls in unresolved areas like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, while defining exemptions to the 15% tariff.
The Trump administration’s hardline stance persists post-Turnberry. Conversely, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen faces limited room for concessions—multiple governments believe existing commitments to the US have already been stretched, particularly on digital tax. While Brussels offered Washington reassurances, it insists the tariff pact cannot constrain EU regulatory autonomy, notably excluding the Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act from talks.
Brussels perceives Washington’s pressure on Big Tech as unabated. The Commission briefed EU member states Tuesday, confirming preparatory work for the deal’s implementation framework. Unlike the US—where President Trump can act via executive orders—von der Leyen lacks authority to compel European companies to invest $600 billion stateside without EU funding. Similar constraints apply to defense purchases Trump claimed as settled.
Tariff regulation falls under the Commission’s exclusive competence but requires qualified majority approval from member states. Tensions simmered during ambassadors’ meetings, with governments awaiting the final text before taking positions. While von der Leyen’s deal appears salvageable, its success remains precarious amid fears Trump could upend negotiations before August 1.
Context:* Stellantis estimates €1.5 billion in tariff impacts but forecasts progressive improvement through 2025, projecting revenue growth and single-digit profitability.
At Turnberry’s outset, Trump demanded 30% tariffs, a Commission spokesperson recalled, contrasting it with the achieved 15% ceiling: “This isn’t the perfect outcome for either side, but we salvaged the best from a tough situation.” The agreement serves the EU’s “fundamental economic interests in stable, predictable transatlantic trade and investment while fully respecting EU regulatory sovereignty,” particularly shielding sensitive agricultural sectors like beef and poultry.
Brussels now faces member-state pressure for side measures. Eleven countries seek a return to 2012-13 steel and aluminum import quotas to protect crisis-hit industries. The Turnberry Pact’s ripple effects—from automotive to agriculture—remain largely unquantified.
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