As dusk fell in Brussels and midday sun shone in Washington, Donald Trump’s tariff threats crossed the Atlantic. The US President maintained that 30% levies remain “on the table,” but assured reporters “we are discussing” the issue because Europe is now “treating us well”—a familiar refrain preceding previous punitive tariff announcements. He nonetheless offered a conciliatory prediction: “I think it will work out.”
Merely four days after delivering a slap-in-the-face letter to the von der Leyen Commission, communication channels have reopened. EU envoys flew across the Atlantic with proposals ranging from a minimum 10% tariff compromise—supported by Rome—to sector-specific exemptions and solutions for the contentious Airbus-Boeing dispute.
These moves signal the political will Berlaymont continues to assert, aiming for an agreement by August 1st. However, the countdown continues. Facing the specter of no deal, the first wave of EU counter-tariffs—worth €21 billion with rates between 10% and 25%, retaliating against US duties on steel and aluminum—will activate on August 6th. A second wave targeting €72 billion of US industrial and agricultural goods is also being prepared by the EU-27.
The negotiation’s difficulty is evident to European governments. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, while expressing confidence, acknowledged closing a deal “won’t be easy.” Even Trump’s assurances of ongoing dialogue with the EU, or his swift tariff deal with Indonesia announced just a week after threatening 32% duties, fail to outline a coherent strategy.
For Berlaymont, Trump remains unpredictable. The initial exchange between EU negotiator Maroš Šefčovič and US counterpart Howard Lutnick was termed “neutral.” Šefčovič swiftly engaged in a new round with another US official, Jamieson Greer. Despite pressure from hardliners led by Paris—where Minister Jean-Noel Barrot declared Europe “cannot be a vassal” of the US, branding the 30% tariff as “blackmail”—caution prevails in Brussels, deemed essential for the talks.
“It is not our intention to activate any countermeasures before August 1st,” remains the EU’s official line. However, the formal 200-page list for the second tranche of counter-tariffs has now officially landed on EU governments’ desks. Streamlined from an initial €95 billion projection, it still targets potent symbols like US beef, pork, SUVs, pick-ups, Boeing components (under French pressure), and iconic Kentucky bourbon—despite Italian, French, and Irish fears of US retaliation against their premium food products.
The list cuts 158 items from the initial draft, strategically sparing US computers, engines, microscopes, precision instruments, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical raw materials like copper and timber—still immune from Washington’s tariffs. Products for military use were also deliberately excluded, considering concessions on US arms procurement.
EU restrictions on exports to the US were drastically reduced, from €4.4 billion to just over €94 million. EU technical experts arrived in Washington with open return tickets, prepared to stay as long as needed. Their agenda includes the thorny Airbus-Boeing dispute: while reducing tariffs is a shared goal, approaches differ widely. Brussels seeks a multilateral framework akin to the 1992 agreement, with rules on public subsidies. Washington prefers a flexible bilateral deal, avoiding constraints from other countries or the WTO.
Meanwhile, Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti declared any tariff rate “unsustainable beyond 10%,” urging negotiators: “We must negotiate tirelessly, without giving in.”